SPECULATION

 FROM SAMPATH’S DESK:

 

SPECULATION

 

Generally, the word ‘speculation’ has more to do with the market of shares, securities, stocks, and investments.

In the commercial world, especially in the share market, speculation necessarily refers to the act of buying or selling commodities, shares, and/or securities with a view to earning profit from future changes in their prices. If the speculator expects an immediate-future rise in prices, he buys at present in order to sell when the prices hike up later, which will enable him to make a profit. If, on the other hand, he expects an impending fall in prices, he would like to sell at present in order to buy in the future when the prices fall. He buys and sells as his speculations lead him to when there is a chance of profit. It's a tricky game. In short, a speculator is not just a gambler, but a specialist in risk-taking.

 

The term could apply to other contexts as well.

 

While a big cat speculates a prize catch of soft animals for its food every day for satiating its hunger, the soft forest animals would like not to fall prey to any ferocious and hostile animal(s).

 

While a thief speculates not only on prize grabs every day he sets out for his job but also on making good his escape from the theft spot with the booty, the common man in general, and the police cops, in particular, would like to maintain a theft-free day.

 

While a layman would speculate on good rains, street vendors may not like it for fear of losing their business.

These contrasting speculations and actions thereon are part of the mundane-life game that keeps the wheels of life moving besides incidentally helping the ecosystem and biodiversity to be maintained.

 

A small exception can be found in the jewelry business where while a gold ornament buyer would speculate on a fall in gold price, the seller would also want a slight fall. For more and more people would come forward to buy jewels at fallen prices benefiting the ornament merchants to make more business and earn more income and profit.

 

In fact, for an ideal merchant, honesty is the financial speculation that would automatically bring more customers, more business, and more profit.

 

Speculation is not knowledge but wisdom, of course not a fantastic one, or on an extraordinarily big scale but it means simple and idle wait with patience for a favourable moment to emerge and an opportunity to surface and come in handy.

 

While the positive effects of speculation mainly are economic benefits and individual benefits, the negative ones rally around economic risks and individual risks.

 

Although speculations are by and large supposed to be emotionally neutral, it is the job of governments and other stakeholders to manage the negative impacts or the disadvantages, and the risks of speculations without compromising their advantages and benefits.

 

Speculations are mere opinions, uncertainty and unpredictability being the inevitable risk. Of course, strength comes after hefty speculations of your inner voice, will, and determination. So, one can make reasonable speculations based on ground reality, and market and other behavioral patterns well analyzed - certainly not by way of blind, wild, or greedy guesses; lest it costs you dearly.

 

The difference between speculation and expectation is that while the former is the process of thinking or meditating on a subject, the latter is the act or state of expecting or looking forward to an event about to happen.

 

While speculation is just waiting for some changes to happen on their own over which you have no control, the expectation is based on some efforts put in by you, the behaviour of some trends and patterns emerging and observed, developments happening one after another, and/or some data suggesting or pointing to it. An example - while you are in an expectation about the result coming up tomorrow of an examination you had written, speculation is just a fertile or wild guess about tomorrow and particularly, what may be in the offing or in store for you tomorrow without any nexus to collate or correlate it with.

 

Some say that an opinion without action leads to speculation whereas an action with an opinion leads to success. Could it be so?

 

Barbara had this to say, “Books are the carriers of civilization. Without books, history is silent, literature dumb, science cripple, thought and speculations at a standstill.”

Imran Khan’s routine allusion to a third umpire getting into the act if Nawaz didn’t heed his resignation demand whetted the speculation mill’s appetite that there actually was a third umpire watching over the play from his obscure niche in the pavilion and would reveal his hand if the contestants failed to come to terms. 

 

On the lighter side “When people don’t know what’s going on in your life they speculate, when they think they know, they fabricate, and when they really know, they just hate.” - “Also, in practical life, the wisest and soundest people avoid speculation.” Yes, they appear to be true! Aren’t they?

 

 

 

R.SAMPATH

2/5/2023